The succession debate is a “talk of the town” in South Africa! South Africans at large are weary or rather cautious, of what will play out heading to the 2019 General Elections. Opinions are being formed, not only regarding the 2019 General Elections; but also of the politics unfolding within the African National Congress(ruling party). 

I ascribe to the notion that: it is fair enough for South Africans to form opinions regarding the politic of the ruling party, as it is most certain(?) that the African National Congress will win the 2019 General Elections. In this opinion piece I would like to throw in my two cents pertaining to the succession debate.

First of all, I must say that the 2019 General Elections are coming at a very difficult time for the African National Congress. These General Elections are coming at a time when the African National Congress is intensively unstabilised and vigorously shaken by different occurrences that have weakened the organisation(ANC). 

From my analysis the timeline of these occurrences stems from the 52nd National Conference of the African National Congress which was held in Polokwane, Limpopo in 2007. 

Obviously, that conference led to the election of President Jacob Zuma to the highest position in the African National Congress, which meant defeat for the then incumbent president of the African National Congress and president of the country(Thabo Mbeki). 

We may argue that; the decisions of the Polokwane conference were a camel’s nose for the African National Congress. 

For the purpose of this article I would rather not take the route of analysing the eventualities subsequent to the Polokwane national conference of the African National Congress. 

Moreover my intent was to provide a trail with regards to the depth of the wound sustained by the African National Congress. 

The depth of this wound is characterized by the birth of The Congress Of The People(COPE) and the Economic Freedom Fighters(EFF), death of the African National Congress Youth League(ANCYL), weakening of the Congress Of South African Trade Unions(COSATU), WHAT ELSE?(inumerous)…

The consequences are adverse: The ANC lost members, voters, metros, integrity, credentials, etc…

Following the unpleasant turnout of the 2016 municipal elections, the African National Congress decided to self-introspect and put its house in order. A call which was echoing from all walls of the organisation, alliance partners and concerned citizens. 

I feel that the African National Congress is/has not done anything satisfactory to regain its glory, I do not feel like the leadership of the African National Congress has any sense of urgency whatsoever to deal with the matter at hand. 

Moreover the ANC is currently engaged in a process of regaining its glory. It is very critical that the ANC goes into the 2019 General Elections a healthy party. 

I confidently feel that restoring the African National Congress to health will be a process that over-spans the current term of the ANC National Executive Committee(NEC), hence the outcome of the ANC’s 54th National Conference will be very critical…

It will be a deciding factor of whether the ANC regains its character of being a liberation movement; that is still committed to the aspirations of South Africans or it has evolved into an undesirable creature, in a South African context of a governing party. 

The African National Congress’s decision regarding who leads the party, I believe, is a very delicate matter. 

Simply because the socio-economical climate in South Africa is at a point where it needs confrontational bold leadership; a fabric of leadership that is capable and has a will to change the socio-economic status quo in South Africa. 

The majority of our people in South Africa have had enough of the un-confronted status quo, that continues to marginalise them. 

For the first time in a new South Africa, people are eminently conscientised about the happenings in the political world; with many of them feeling that they have been failed by the system. 

Radical transformation is thus fundamental to address these concerns, the implementation of the policies has to be paced by a notch or two up. 

For that reason the African National Congress is in a very difficult position, as it needs a person who is capable of implementing policies to bring about radical transformation, and who is also capacitated to restore and bring the African National Congress together.

“FINDING SUCH A CANDIDATE IS A DAUNTING TASK!(isn’t it?)”

…Well finding such a candidate is not a daunting task in normal conditions. Howbeit we all are aware of the fact that the conditions in the African National Congress are un-normal. 

Traditionally the ANC’s succession is carried out in such mannerism that the deputy president becomes a president. It has been like that for decades. Reason being the fact that when a deputy president was elected He/She was elected because He/She was capable of being the president. 

To be quite frank; He/She was projected as a definite president in waiting. Hence, if I would give an example; Cyrial Ramaphosa being Nelson Mandela’s favourite, decided to leave politics when his hopes of succeeding Madiba were defeated by Thabo Mbeki being elected as ANC’s deputy president in 1997. 

Cyrial Ramaphosa knew very well that he would not emerge as the president of the ANC, atleast for a couple of years, as Thabo was going to be a president. There was no doubt about that succession tradition. 

The aforementioned tradition is the reason why the ANC went to its national conferences a very united and strong force. It is an anomaly for the ANC to approach its national conferences in a state of disarray as currently is.

In the case of this year’s succession debate, it is a different case altogether. The ANC has polarised into camps. I would deduce that there is a pseudo-socialist ideological informed camp and a pseudo-progressive(capitalist) camp. 

I believe there are no more than two camps; the rest(if there is) are just disguised, and are an extension of one of the above camps. The above-mentioned camps are lobbying for different persons whom they believe represents them the best, to take the top seats in the party. 

Four candidates are said to have accepted to run for the highest seat(presidency): Cyrial Ramaphosa, Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Baleka Mbethe and Jeff Radebe. There is a possibility of more candidates throwing their names in the hat, as the succession debate has not yet been officially opened by the African National Congress. THE QUESTION WOULD BE:

“ARE ALL THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANDIDATES PROJECTED BECAUSE THEY CAN UNITE THE ORGANISATION AND PUSH THE RADICAL TRANSFORMATION AGENDA FORWARD OR DO THE CAMPS HAVE THEIR OWN HIDDEN AGENDAS?”

The above question is very imperative; because in a case where a candidate emerges as a president of the African National Congress and that candidate is not really capacitated to unite the organisation and push the radical transformation agenda forward, for quite obvious reasons it would spell “DISASTER” for the African National Congress. 

The ANC understands this without any shadow of a doubt, hence they are trying their best to suppress any talks regarding succession. 

The ANC has announced that the succession debate should not be commenced as yet, instead the principles and values of the candidates that would be best capable of leading the organisation must be discussed. 

Their strategy is to discuss what unifies them extensively, so that they are clear of the exact qualities of a leader who is desired to lead the organisation. 

I would assume that if their strategy is successful, it would give both groups closure regardless of the outcome of the 54th conference as both groups would have agreed on the same principles and values.

“herewith we present to you the leader of the principles and values we had agreed on”

Moreover the success of their strategy is quite bleak; as some ANC branches, regions, provinces and alliance partners are already making succession debate pronouncements. 

My preference of a candidate, as an individual, is informed by my ideological allegiance. If I were to nominate a candidate it would be Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. 

Simply because she is a socialist at heart and also an outstanding servant of the people. I believe she would be able to unify the organisation and Implement the policies of the ANC with no reservations or conflict of interests. 

In my view the revolution would be best safe with her at the helms, the progress made by the ANC this far as it pertains to transformation would not be reversed, but continued with. 

Howbeit I am not sure if her camp has pure motives as I best believe she does. In addition to the above; I am quite not impressed by her term as an AU chairperson, but then the AU is a different thing all together in juxtaposition to presidency. #NDZ2017

Mr. Cyrial Ramaphosa is a very strange personality in my view. He is a self-professed socialist who strikes me as a capitalist of note in practice. I don’t believe he would be able to defend the revolution at all. 

However I would never take it away from Mr. Ramaphosa that he is an exceptional leader and a skilled negotiator. To some degree I don’t doubt that he would be a best suited candidate to unify the ANC, he has been in dire situations as a negotiator before. 

Moreover his ideology or capitalistic ethos would not work for the good of the ANC and our people at large. Can he prove me wrong? (Let’s give that to the future).

What we need now is a radical approach towards transformation, which I don’t believe Cyrial would be able to carry-out. 

In conclusion. I personally see no way that the ANC would be able to satisfy both camps, unless they vote for a compromise candidate, which is practically out of the raider. 

The rule of thumb is: if the president comes from camp A, then the deputy and the entire executive will mostly compromise of candidates coming from the same Camp. A situation where Mr. Cyrial Ramaphosa is a president and Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is the deputy or vice versa is very, very unlikely. The winner takes all in this race. IF I MAY ASK:

“ARE THERE ANY INTERESTS FOR THE NATION(SOUTH AFRICA) AT HEART OF THIS RACE?, OR IS IT A SELF-ENRICHING ENDEAVOR?”

“Let us stay optimistic South Africa”~Mphumzi Makeleni
Email: mphumzimm@gmail.com

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